By Guo Xiaobing

郭曉兵

Recently, the Biden administration significantly adjusted its policy on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine, permitting Ukraine to use the U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike deep into Russian territory. With less than two months left for the Biden administration's term, why did it make such a major decision suddenly? What impact will it have on the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

日前，拜登政府大幅調(diào)整援烏武器的使用政策，準(zhǔn)許烏克蘭使用美國(guó)提供的陸軍戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)（ATACMS）攻擊俄縱深。拜登政府任期已不足兩個(gè)月，為何突然作出這一重大決定？又將對(duì)俄烏局勢(shì)產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響？

The so-called ATACMS is a short-range ballistic missile manufactured by the US company Lockheed Martin. It can carry 170 kilograms of explosives and has a range of up to 305 kilometers.

所謂的陸軍戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)，是由美國(guó)洛馬公司制造的一種短程彈道導(dǎo)彈，可攜帶170千克的炸藥，射程達(dá)305公里。

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, the provision of long-range weapons to Ukraine and related usage policies have been a focus of controversy in the US. The Biden administration had misgivings about providing such weapons to Ukraine. On the one hand, it worried about depleting its own weapons stockpiles, as supplying Ukraine with a large quantity of such weapons could affect its military readiness in other regions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, Washinton fretted that the use of these weapons by Ukraine to strike Russia could escalate the conflict.

自2022年2月烏克蘭危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái)，對(duì)烏提供遠(yuǎn)程武器及相關(guān)使用政策一直是美國(guó)內(nèi)爭(zhēng)議焦點(diǎn)。拜登政府對(duì)于向?yàn)跆峁┐祟愇淦鞑粺o(wú)顧慮：一是擔(dān)心自身武器庫(kù)存不足，向?yàn)醮罅刻峁┐祟愇淦鲗⒂绊懫渌貐^(qū)尤其是“印太”地區(qū)戰(zhàn)備；二是擔(dān)心烏使用此類武器攻擊俄羅斯或引發(fā)沖突升級(jí)。

The Biden administration's adjustment of its policy on providing long-range weapons to Ukraine is made on the excuse of countering the DPRK's involvement in Russia's military operations. Firstly, from a tactical perspective, it can help Ukraine resist Russia's counteroffensive in the Kursk region, thereby preserving its negotiating leverage with Russia. The US claims that Russia is mobilizing 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, to launch a large-scale attack on Ukrainian forces occupying Kursk. Ukraine could use the ATACMS to target the assembly areas of Russian and North Korean troops, key military equipment, logistical hubs, ammunition depots, and supply lines within Russian territory. Secondly, in terms of diplomacy, the US aims to send a deterrent signal to North Korea and prevent it from sending additional troops to support Russia.

拜登政府此番調(diào)整援烏遠(yuǎn)程武器使用政策，借口是反制朝入俄作戰(zhàn)。一是在戰(zhàn)術(shù)上，幫助烏抵御俄在庫(kù)爾斯克地區(qū)的反攻，從而盡量保住與俄談判的籌碼。美宣稱俄正調(diào)動(dòng)包括朝鮮援軍在內(nèi)的5萬(wàn)名士兵對(duì)占領(lǐng)庫(kù)爾斯克的烏軍發(fā)動(dòng)大規(guī)模攻擊。烏克蘭可使用陸軍戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)攻擊俄朝軍隊(duì)集結(jié)地、關(guān)鍵軍事裝備、后勤節(jié)點(diǎn)、彈藥庫(kù)和俄境內(nèi)補(bǔ)給線。二是在外交上，向朝鮮發(fā)出威懾信號(hào)，阻止其向俄增派援軍。

In addition, the Biden administration's move is clearly influenced by the consideration of offsetting potential adjustments to Ukraine policy by Trump during his second term. Trump and Biden have diametrically opposite views on the Ukraine crisis. Trump has strongly criticized the Biden administration for providing large amounts of aid to Ukraine, advocating for an immediate end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There are two main reasons behind his stance. One is from the perspective of the economy. He believes that war fuels inflation and that ending the conflict would lower commodity prices. The other is about strategy. He argues that ending the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East would allow the US to focus its efforts on countering China.

此外，拜登政府此舉明顯有對(duì)沖特朗普第二任期對(duì)烏政策調(diào)整的考慮。特朗普與拜登對(duì)于烏克蘭危機(jī)的看法迥異。特朗普猛烈抨擊拜登政府向?yàn)跆峁┐罅吭?，力主盡快終結(jié)俄烏戰(zhàn)事。其出發(fā)點(diǎn)有兩個(gè)：一是在經(jīng)濟(jì)上，他認(rèn)為，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)滋生通脹，結(jié)束沖突可以降低大宗商品價(jià)格；二是在戰(zhàn)略上，結(jié)束歐洲和中東的沖突，才能集中精力對(duì)付中國(guó)。

After the US announced it would permit Ukraine to use the U.S.-supplied ATACMS to strike Russia, the UK and France quickly followed suit, allowing Ukraine to use their long-range weapons to target Russian territory. In response, Russia has repeatedly issued warnings. Russian President Vladimir Putin had stated as early as September that lifting the restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons would significantly change the nature of the conflict, implying that NATO would be directly involved in the war. In this context, Russia is considering revising the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence, emphasizing that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, if supported or participated in by a nuclear-armed state, will be regarded as a joint attack on Russia. This means that Ukraine's use of long-range missiles provided by the West to strike deep into Russian territory could increase the risk of a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO.

在美宣布準(zhǔn)許烏克蘭使用美國(guó)提供的陸軍戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)攻擊俄之后，英、法迅速跟進(jìn)，允許烏使用其提供的遠(yuǎn)程武器攻擊俄領(lǐng)土。對(duì)此，俄方反復(fù)發(fā)出警告。俄總統(tǒng)普京早在9月就已表示，取消對(duì)烏使用西方武器的限制將大大改變沖突性質(zhì)，意味著北約直接參與了沖突。為此，俄還醞釀修訂《核威懾國(guó)家政策基本原則》，強(qiáng)調(diào)“任何無(wú)核武器國(guó)家對(duì)俄羅斯的侵略，若有核武器國(guó)家參與或支持，即視為對(duì)俄羅斯的聯(lián)合攻擊”。這意味著烏利用援助的遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈攻擊俄縱深目標(biāo)，引發(fā)俄羅斯與北約核沖突風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能增加。

However, Ukraine's potential to leverage long-range missiles for local advantages and the window of opportunity for doing so are both limited. Firstly, the US supply of the ATACMS to Ukraine is limited. A portion has already been used and the remaining stock is not substantial. Secondly, the Trump administration will take office on January 20 next year. While the Trump administration may not have a magic solution to end the Ukraine crisis within 24 hours, it could certainly revoke the Biden administration's orders, reimpose restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles, and thereby force Zelensky to comply more closely with the directives of the Trump administration.

不過(guò)，烏克蘭運(yùn)用遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈謀求局部?jī)?yōu)勢(shì)的潛力和時(shí)間窗口均有限。其一，美國(guó)向?yàn)蹩颂m提供的陸軍戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)有限，此前已消耗一部分，剩余的并不太多。其二，特朗普政府明年1月20日將上臺(tái)。其未必有“靈丹妙藥”能讓烏克蘭危機(jī)在24小時(shí)內(nèi)停止，但完全可以撤回拜登政府的命令，重新限制烏對(duì)美制遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈的使用范圍，從而讓澤連斯基更加順從地按照特朗普政府的指揮棒走。

(The author is a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)

（作者是中國(guó)現(xiàn)代國(guó)際關(guān)系研究院研究員）

Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.